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  • EUR/USD price forecast is neutral to bearish below the 50 days EMA resistance level of $1.1745.
  • Optimistic US PPI and Jobless Claims boost the dollar’s demand, keeping EUR/USD bearish.
  • Forex trading market participants may look for sell trades below the $ 1.1760 level today.

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bearish bias at 1.1735 level, having crossed below 50 days EMA (exponential moving average – red line). The EMA extends resistance at the 1.1735 level; however, there’s a fundamental reason behind a EUR/USD selling trend. Better than expected US PPI and Jobless Claims data has driven a bullish trend in the dollar, driving EUR/USD pair lower. 

If you are interested in trading EUR/USD with forex robots, check out our guide.

Previously, the EUR/USD exhibited a slight bullish bias during the European session. That’s because the US dollar lost its strength amid the release of steady US inflation data for July. It boosted investor’s fear that the Federal Reserve might start increasing interest rates sooner than expected. 

The US Dollar Index fell to 92.8 level after rising for 3rd consecutive session, and the US Treasury Yields on a 10-year note also declined to 1.307% and added further pressure on EUR/USD. The single currency Euro is steady against the greenback during the New York trading session as the US PPI and Jobless Claims boost the dollar’s demand. Meanwhile, the single currency Euro could not find significant support as the bloc’s coronavirus developments kept it under pressure.

Covid Fear Increases Dollar’s Demand – EUR/USD Under Selling Pressure 

Concerns over a potential fourth wave of coronavirus in the autumn were hurting the economic confidence. The cases were continuously increasing in Germany, and there were expectations that cases might rise at a higher pace as people returned from holiday. 

The further downbeat outlook was driven by the global supply chain issues and the uncertainty over the next month’s national elections. These concerns kept investors cautious about placing strong bids in EUR as the fears of rising coronavirus infections weighed on the Eurozone’s economic recovery.

US PPI & Jobless Claims Strengthens US Dollar 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has released the PPI data in favor of the US dollar. The Producer Price Index grew 1.0% in July, seasonally adjusted. Whereas the final demand prices expanded 1.0% in June and 0.8% in May.

Furthermore, the Department of Labor released the Unemployment claims figures, which are almost neutral. The unemployment claims were 375K, a drop of 12,000 from the prior week’s updated level. The last week’s level was changed up by 2K from 385K to 387K. Therefore, the US dollar is gaining bullish momentum and driving a bearish trend in EUR/USD. 

US PPI & Jobless Claims
EUR/USD 4-Hour Timeframe – 50 EMA Resistance

EUR/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1715 1.1762

1.1687 1.1781

1.1668 1.1809

Pivot Point: 1.1734

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Daily Technical Analysis: 50 EMA Resistance at 1.1745

EUR/USD price forecast is neutral to bearish below the 50 days EMA resistance level of $1.1745. On the 4-hour chart, the pair bounced off the support level of 1.1707, and now it’s consolidating between a narrow trading range of 1.1760 – 1.1735. 

The 50 days EMA (Exponential Moving Average – Red Line) holds at 1.1750 level, while the CMP stays at 1.1740. At the same time, the oscillator indicator Stochastic RSI is holding in the overbought zone, above 80 at 92. Both of the indicators are suggesting chances of a selling trend/bearish correction in EUR/USD. 

Therefore, Forex trading market participants may look for sell trades below the $ 1.1760 level today. The initial targets are likely to be $ 1.1708 and $ 1.1675 levels. Alternatively, buy trades can be taken above the $ 1.1760 level to target $ 1.1820. All the best!

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