It’s all red: retail sales dropped, PPI is poor and the Empire State Manufacturing Index is down. US retail sales fell 0.3%, and core sales by 0.2%. While the headline number was expected to slide, the fall is bigger than expected and the disappointment is bigger in the core number which was expected to rise. Producer prices were expected to advance by 1.8% in both headline and core numbers. They both stand at 1.6%, showing very poor inflation in PPI. The Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to 6.17 points, a third of expectations.
And so is the dollar: EUR/USD is above 1.27, GBP/USD rises to 1.5940 and USD/JPY is at a new multi-month low.
Retail sales were expected to tick down 0.1% m/m and core sales carried expectations for a rise of 0.2% in the month of September. Consumption is a very significant part of the US economy. PPI and core PPI were both expected to rise 0.1% m/m. The Empire State Manufacturing Index was estimated to drop from 27.5 to 20.3 points.
Towards the publication, the dollar was retreating a bit against some currencies, but didn’t go very far.
- EUR/USD was trading heavily due to worries about Germany, but towards the event, it topped 1.2660 and now breaks above 1.27.
- GBP/USD had mixed employment data, was flirting with 1.5950 and is now around 1.5960.
- USD/JPY is down below 1.0640 – a new cycle low. The yen enjoys the safe haven flows.
- USD/CAD was rising without a pause on the collapse of oil prices. After reaching 1.1384 it began sliding and it is now at 1.1322.
- AUD/USD is now climbing from support at 0.87, recovering from the weak Chinese CPI.
- NZD/USD is shooting up towards 0.79.