US retail sales to register a soft 0.1% gain for October – TD Securities

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Previewing next week’s macroeconomic data releases from the United States, “We look for retail sales to register a soft 0.1% gain for October as a decline in auto sales likely kept headline sales subdued,” said TD Securities analysts.

Key quotes

“However, we expect a rebound in the control group to be the main driver of headline growth, reflecting still-solid consumer spending. Sales at gasoline stations should also boost growth on the back of a gain in gasoline prices in October.”

“We look for headline inflation to remain unchanged at 1.7% y/y in October, partly aided by an increase in energy prices. Core inflation should decline a tenth to 2.3% y/y. We expect core goods inflation to recover m/m, but for core services inflation to slow to 0.2% m/m after four straight increases at 0.3%.”

“Public appearances by the FOMC “core” (Powell, Clarida, and Williams) will drive Fed communication. We look for Chair Powell to reiterate the FOMC policy message that monetary policy and the economy remain “in a good place” during his two-day visit to the Hill. Vice-Chair Clarida could offer additional details about the ongoing Fed Framework Review at the Cato Conference.”

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