Analysts at BNP Paribas, expect growth to slow in the coming quarters affected by different factors, including the stronger US dollar and slower corporate earnings growth.
Key Quotes:
“Most indicators remain above their long term average and several, of which the all-important non-farm payrolls, have surprised to the upside. Ongoing strong growth is reflected in the Atlanta Fed nowcast for the current quarter (an annualised 2.6% versus the previous quarter). Growth is expected to slow in the coming quarters, whilst remaining above potential, under the influence of several factors: the diminishing impact of the fiscal boost, slower world growth, the strong dollar which weighs on price competitiveness of exports, the effect of Fed rate hikes, a softening of the housing market, slower corporate earnings growth, increased uncertainty (trade with China), financial market volatility.”
“It’s the start of a new month, which implies a packed schedule of important data releases. The PMIs (manufacturing, services and composite) in several countries, both ISM indicators in the US, the University of Michigan sentiment index and, most importantly, the labour market data in the US. Also worth noting, the Fed beige book on the economic situation across the US.”
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