US week ahead: NFP and housing data – Danske Bank

Next week data to be released in the US includes the official employment report and also housing related. The US jobs report should show quite strong wage growth, but job growth seems to have reached its peak, according to Danske Bank analysts. “Maybe the weakest spot in the US economy is the housing market, so keep an eye on housing data”, they added.  

Key Quotes:  

“In the US, the jobs report is the most important release which is due out on Friday. We think average hourly earnings rose +0.25% m/m in February, which means an increase in the annual growth rate to 3.3% y/y, up from 3.2%, while we expect the change in nonfarm payrollsto come in at 190k. Regarding nonfarm payrolls, it seems employment growth has reached its high and has stabilised around its current level of 1.7% y/y. At the moment, the labour market is still strong, but in our view it is important to keep an eye on deceleration in employment.”

“Next week also brings housing market data. New home sales have been on a declining trend since December 2017, however, data for November came in stronger than expected. As the housing market overall shows signs of weakness, we will keep an eye on these data releases.”