USD: 3 Reasons For Not Calling The Start Of Another Bull Cycle In 2018 – ING

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The US dollar has gained quite a bit of ground in recent weeks. Can it continue into 2018? The team at ING has some doubts.

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

ING FX Strategy Research discusses the USD outlook into the coming year and makes a case for not calling for the start of another USD bull cycle in 2018, on the back of the following 3 reasons.

1- The economics for a stronger dollar doesn’t add up. Without genuine supply-side reforms, the Trump tax bill is adding to the fiscal deficit without changing the long-run trend growth in the US. That is textbook dollar negative

2- The politics for a stronger dollar doesn’t add up. It’s clear that the President does not want a stronger dollar – the administration’s protectionist concerns remain a simmering risk for 2018.

3- But most importantly, the rest of the world is growing – and catching up to a US economy that is far later in its cycle.

“Admittedly, we need the details of the final bill to conclude the overall effects, but for now – we remain firmly in the camp where US tax ‘reforms’ will not be a game-changer for a weakening $,” ING argues.

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Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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