In the US, headline and core inflation both rose slightly, from 0.0% to 0.2%. PPI was also weak, with the headlined and core releases coming in at a negligible 0.1%. Unemployment claims surged to 853 thousand last week, up from 712 thousand. This points to weakness in the labor market, as the economy continues to struggle. The week wrapped up on a positive note, as UoM Consumer Sentiment improved to 81.4 in December, up from 77.0 beforehand.
USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Housing Starts: Tuesday, 13:15. Housing starts rose slightly in October, from 209 thousand to 215 thousand. We now await the November data.
- Manufacturing Sales: Tuesday, 13:30. The indicator rebounded in September, climbing 1.5%. Will the upswing continue in October?
- Inflation Report: Wednesday, 13:30. Headline CPI improved to 0.4% in October, its first gain in four months. . Trimmed CPI, which excludes the most volatile items in the headline reading, has been steady, with two straight gains of 1.8%. We now await the November release.
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Thursday, 13:30. Canada’s labor market has shown some strong gains in job creation, but the ADP report has registered three straight declines. Will we see a reading in positive territory in the November release?
- Retail Sales: Friday, 13:30. Headline retail sales improved nicely in September, with a gain of 1.1%, after a reading of 0.4% beforehand. Core retail sales also showed a strong improvement, from 0.5% to 1.0%. Will the upswing continue in October?
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
Technical lines from top to bottom
We start with resistance at 1.3174 (mentioned last week).
1.3092 has held in resistance since mid-November.
1.2938 switched to resistance at the start of December, when USD/CAD started its slide.
1.2856 is next.
1.2702 is protecting the 1.27 line.
1.2620 is the final support line for now.
I remain bearish on USD/CAD
With FDA approval of Pfizer’s Covid vaccines, risk sentiment has risen, which is bullish for the Canadian dollar. As well, an agreement on US fiscal stimulus would inject a huge amount of US dollars into the economy and would likely weigh on the US dollar.
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