Canadian Dollar Outlook – November 16-20 2009

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Looking for the latest outlook for this week? Check the full section: USD/CAD Forecast.

The Canadian dollar was the big winner of the past week, with USD/CAD breaking a support line. This week’s CPI and 5 other events will shape the direction of the loonie. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming events in Canada, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD chart with support and resistance lines. Click to enlarge:

USD CAD Forecast

Apart from the CPI release, a speech by Mark Carney near the end of the week is also of high importance. Let’s review the events. The technical analysis will follow:

  1. Manufacturing Sales: The value of sales made by manufacturers is quite volatile in Canada. After a sharp rise of 5.5% in July, it disappointed by falling by 2.1% in August. September’s number, which is published on Monday at 13:30 GMT, is predicted to rise again, this time by 0.5%.
  2. Consumer Price Index: Consumer prices in Canada aren’t moving too much. In the past two months, prices have stayed unchanged. This month, prices are expected to rise by 0.2%. Only a higher figure will push Mark Carney to raise the rates earlier than declared. Core CPI, no less important, is expected to remain unchanged this time, after making a small surprise last time, and rising by 0.3%. The figures are published on Wednesday at 12:00 GMT, before the American CPI release. Quite volatile hours for USD/CAD.
  3. Leading Index: This composite index checks the state of the economy by combining 10 different economic indicators – most of them already published. Although some of these numbers are already out there, this index exceeded expectations in the past three months, rising by 1.1% last time. This time, it’s expected to show a rise of 0.8%, which will be more good news for the loonie. Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT.
  4. Foreign Securities Purchases: After a big decrease in money flow to Canada two months ago, this figure recovered with a rise to 5 billion last month. It’s expected to continue rising to 6.6 billion this time. Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Slightly overshadowed by the leading index release.
  5. Wholesale Sales: Complementing the manufacturing sales at the beginning of the week, wholesale sales have a smaller range of movement. After a drop of 1.4% last month, a drop of 0.3% is predicted this time. Published on Thursday at 13:30, also slightly overshadowed by the leading index.
  6. BOC Review: The central bank releases overviews of the economic situation, as seen from inside the bank. The reports related to inflation may impact the loonie, if they show an acceleration of prices. Published on Thursday at 15:30 GMT.
  7. Mark Carney talks: The governor of the Bank of Canada will make a rather important speech about the future of the international monetary system. Talks about intervention to help the US dollar may move the markets. He’ll begin talking on Friday at 11:05 GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD began the week with a break of the support line of 1.06. It later continued downhill and bounced only at 1.04. Renewed dollar strength pushed it back up, but not above 1.06, which turned into a resistance line. The close, at 1.0512. makes the Canadian dollar one of big winners of the week.

Apart from 1.06 mentioned here, 1.0850 is the next resistance line, serving as such a few weeks ago. Further above, 1.1130 is a strong resistance line that worked well during the summer. Note that some of the support and resistance lines have been modified from last week’s USD/CAD outlook.

Looking down, 1.04 was the bottom this week, and also worked as a support and resistance line during the summer of 2008. It serves as immediate support. Further below, the year-to-date low of 1.02 is another support line.  Looking even lower, 1:1, parity is the ultimate support line.

As in the past two weeks, I remain neutral on USD/CAD.

Despite the move south in the past week, the GDP is still problematic and also recent employment figures disappointed. Only a jump in prices, that can theoretically be seen in this week’s CPI, can push the Canadian dollar.

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    About Author

    Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.