USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 14-18 – US dollar gains ground, BoC stays pat

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The Canadian dollar had its first losing week since July, as USD/CAD gained close to one percent. There are four releases in the upcoming week, including inflation and retail sales. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

As expected, the Bank of Canada held rates at 0.25%. The bank reiterated that it would not raise rates until inflation remained sustainable at 2 percent. Analysts don’t expect that goal to be reached before 2023, so Canada’s interest rates will stay close to zero for the foreseeable future. There was positive news from the housing sector, as Housing Starts jumped to 262 thousand in August, up from 246 thousand.

In the US, unemployment claims were worse than expected. The indicator was almost unchanged at 884 thousand, higher than the estimate of 838 thousand. Inflation remained weak, as consumer inflation slowed in August. Both the headline and core readings reading dropped from 0.6% to 0.4%. Still, both releases beat their estimates. The Producer Price Index, another important inflation gauge, also slowed in August.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Manufacturing Sales: Tuesday, 12:30. The manufacturing sector continues to head higher. The indicator posted an impressive gain of 20.7% in July, up from 10.7% beforehand. Another double-digit gain would be bullish for the Canadian dollar.
  2. Inflation: Wednesday, 12:30. Consumer inflation slowed to 0.0% in July, down from 0.8% beforehand. The core reading declined by 0.1%, marking its third decline in four months. Will we see an improvement in the August data?
  3. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Thursday, 12:30. This indicator comes two weeks after the release of Canada Employment Change, which showed a strong gain of 245.5 thousand in August. Will the ADP release follow suit with a strong reading?
  4. Retail Sales: Friday, 12:30. Consumer spending jumped in July. The headline figure soared by 23.7%, while the core reading climbed by 15.7%. We now await the August data.
  • All times are GMT

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.3420 (mentioned last week) has held in resistance since the first week in August.

1.3330 is next.

1.3230 has some breathing room in resistance.

1.3149 is the first support level.

1.3016 is next.

1.2904 is protecting the 1.29 line.

1.2841 has provided support since October 2018. It is the final support line for now.

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I am bullish on USD/CAD

The US dollar enjoyed broad gains last week, after a prolonged period of weakness. There are signs that the US economy is recovering, and the greenback could continue the upswing next week.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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