USD/CAD Forecast September 2-6 – Investors eye BoC rate decision

0
USD/CAD posted small gains for a second consecutive week. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Canada rate decision and employment data. Here is an outlook for the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
Canada’s GDP remained unchanged at 0.2% in June. This edged above the forecast of 0.1%, but the gain was not enough to boost the lethargic Canadian dollar. The current account trade deficit narrowed to C$-6.4 billion, the smallest deficit since 2008.
Over in the U.S. the highlight of the week was second-estimate GDP for Q2, which came in at 2.0%, matching the estimate. This was a slight downward revision from the initial estimate, which came in at 2.1%. It is evident that second-quarter growth will be significantly weaker than Q1, and further rate cuts could be in the works in the remainder of 2019. Durable goods orders improved to 2.1%, up from 2.0% a month earlier. However, core durable goods orders declined by 0.4%, the first decline in six months. The week wrapped up with UoM consumer confidence, which dropped sharply to 89.8 in July, down from 98.4 in June. This marked the first time that the key confidence indicator has dropped below the 90-level since October 2014.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 13:30. Markit’s purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector improved slightly to 50.2 in July, after three successive contractions. Will we see another expansion in August?
  2. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 12:30. Canada posted a small surplus in June of C$0.1 billion, above the forecast of C$-0.3 billion. Another small surplus is expected in July, with a forecast of C$0.2 billion.
  3. BoC Rate Decision: Wednesday, 14:00. The BoC last raised rates back in October, and no change is expected to the current rate of 1.75%. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the rate statement – a dovish statement could send the Canadian dollar lower.
  4. Employment Data: Friday, 12:30. Employment change declined by 24.2 thousand in July, surprising the markets, which had forecast a gain of 15.2 thousand. Will we see a rebound in the August release? The unemployment rate jumped to 5.7% in July, up from 5.5% a month earlier. We will now receive data for August.

* All times are GMT

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.3665 was the high for 2018. 1.3565 is the next resistance line.

1.3445 has held in resistance since the first week of June. This is followed by 1.3385.

1.3350 has held steady since mid-June. It was under some pressure during the week.

1.3265 remained relevant this week. It starts the new trading week as a weak support level.

1.3175 is the next line of support.

1.3125 (mentioned last week) has held in support since the end of August. 1.3048 follows.

1.2916 is the final support level for now.

I remain bullish on USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar continues to lose ground, as the currency has registered seven successive losing weeks. Fears of a recession in the U.S. have dampened risk appetite, and the ongoing U.S-China trade war will not help matters. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold rates, and if the rate statement or follow-up comments from BoC Governor Stephen Poloz are dovish, the pair’s upward movement could continue.

Follow us on Sticher or iTunes

Further reading:

Safe trading!

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.