USD/CAD Forecast: WallStreet Banks Warn of a Recession

• Leading US banks are preparing for a deteriorating economy next year.
• Canada’s imports and exports increased in October.
• Investors are awaiting the Bank of Canada rate decision.

Today’s USD/CAD forecast is bullish. Some top US banks warned of a looming recession on Wednesday, decreasing demand for riskier assets and pushing the dollar higher.

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Leading bankers from JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs stated over the weekend that the banks are preparing for a deteriorating economy next year as inflation and high interest rates reduce consumer demand.

According to Tuesday’s figures, Canada’s imports and exports surged in October, with the increase in imports driven by a decline in the Canadian dollar.

Statistics Canada reported the country’s trade surplus with the rest of the world went up to C$1.21 billion in October, slightly exceeding analysts’ predictions of an excess of C$1.20 billion.

According to Statscan, increased exports of pharmaceuticals, gold bars, and coins to the US boosted exports by 1.5%. Exports increased in volume by 0.1%.

Since a sizable portion of Canada’s trade is conducted in US dollars, converted values go up when the Canadian dollar’s value declines relative to the US dollar. According to Statscan, Canadian imports fell 2.2%, and exports fell 1.3% in October, as measured in US dollars.

According to Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist at Capital Economics, the almost constant level of export volumes in October, despite a significant lift from higher agricultural exports, implies that the industry is beginning to struggle with weakening external demand.

USD/CAD key events today

Investors will pay attention to the Bank of Canada rate decision meeting later today. A slim majority of economists expect a 50bps rate hike at the meeting.

USD/CAD technical forecast: Bull rally continues above 1.3600

The chart above shows the price in a strong bullish trend well above the 30-SMA. The RSI also supports bullish strength as it trades in the overbought region. Bulls took control when the price broke above the 30-SMA and the 1.3500 level and didn’t pause until it reached the next resistance level at 1.3600.

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There was a short pause at the 1.3600 level before the price broke above. Currently, the price has paused at the 1.3675 level. Bears might come in for a retracement at this point as the price is overbought before the bullish trend continues.

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