USD/CAD: Range-Bound N-Term Before Further Gains In 2020 – CIBC

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The Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut interest rates but the loonie is struggling to gain ground. Where next?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

CIBC Research discusses USD/CAD outlook and expects a move towards 1.31 into year-end before rallying through 1.38 next year. 

We expect USDCAD to remain rangebound in the near-term. Looking into Q1 2020, however, we expect there to be sufficient evidence of waning domestic fundamentals on the back of the global deceleration to warrant a 25 bp ease by the Bank. As that’s not currently being priced in by markets, the move should see the C$ weaken modestly, with USDCAD hovering around 1.33 and 1.34 in Q1 and Q2 of next year, respectively,” CIBC notes.

From a longer-term perspective, a weaker loonie is needed to support Canada’s current account and trade balances. A depreciation in the C$ versus the US$ will help Canadian export competitiveness versus other major players, especially within the US, where it’s lost ground in recent years. Moreover, boosting exports will be increasingly important as household spending remains sluggish. This should see the currency pair hover around 1.38 in Q4 2020, and approach 1.40 into 2021,” CIBC adds.

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