The Canadian dollar enjoyed a big boost from the excellent jobs report. It was the second superb report: a gain of around 79K positions in Canada. This is comparable to two consecutive months of 700K jobs gained in the US. USD/CAD fell from around 1.25 to just under 1.2360.
With a new week in play, we have seen some profit-taking: Dollar/CAD advanced back and reached a high of 1.2448 today, still far from the pre-jobs report levels. Yet after the publication of the BOC Business Survey, the pair resumes its falls. The loonie is on a roll, falling back down to 1.24.
What’s in that survey? The BOC reports about rises in intentions to invest, hiring and an intensity in labor shortage. There are additional positive figures and firms intend to expand operations to deal with sustained demand.
All in all, the jobs report and the survey point to steaming economy. Canada had experienced a great first half in 2017 but a slowdown in Q3. The BOC raised rates twice but then took a long pause.
This pause may now come to an end, with potentially another hike on January 17th. Even if Poloz and co. only hint about a hike in the near future and refrain from a rate rise to start off the year, CAD may continue climbing.
What do you think?