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  • Rush towards risk-safety drags the USD/CHF pair again down from 100-day EMA.
  • Swiss CPI, US employment numbers and trade/political headlines will be in focus.

Despite witnessing market’s run towards risk-safety, the USD/CHF refrains from declining below 21-day EMA, as traders await key data, while making the rounds to 0.9890 during early Friday.

The pair registered another failure to close beyond 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) on Thursday as the US President’s surprise tariff announcement on Chinese goods pulled the US Dollar (USD) down. The greenback initially cheered the US Federal Reserve’s not-so-dovish rate cut.

Risk tone remains heavy during the Asian session after North Korea tested another bunch of missiles, third in a week, while the US President shows readiness to “tax the hell out of China”. Adding to the pressure could be White House announcement that the President Donald Trump will soon release statement on EU trade terms.

It should also be noted that upcoming July month release of Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) on 06:30 GMT and the US employment data at 12:30 GMT are likely key catalysts coupled with trade/political headlines to foresee near-term pair moves.

Swiss CPI is expected to shrink to -0.3% from 0.0% on MoM while likely declining to 0.5% from 0.6% on a yearly basis. On the other hand, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) could keep levitating around yearly average with 164K expected versus 224K prior with Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) bearing the consensus of 3.2% against 3.1% prior and no change expectations from the Unemployment Rate of 3.7%.

Technical Analysis

Even if the pair closes below 0.9886 level of 21-day EMA, a five-week-old ascending trend-line at 0.9855 could limit additional declines, if not then July low surrounding 0.9800 could be on the sellers’ radar. Alternatively, a daily close beyond 100-day EMA level of 0.9945 can propel the quote to 1.000 round-figure and then to June top close to 1.0015.