A Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists showed that the USD/CNY pair will strengthen beyond the 7.00 mark over the coming year amid looming US tariffs threat and China’s refraining from currency management.
“The yuan would weaken about 1% to 7.10 per dollar by end-October. It is then forecast to gain slightly to 7.06 in a year, close to where it was trading on Tuesday.
That is a complete U-turn in expectations from a survey taken last week when the yuan was forecast to have risen over 2% in a year, with the most optimistic call pencilled in for an 11% gain.
The year ahead outlook for the renminbi in the latest survey was the most downbeat median in Reuters polls since June 2017.
The most pessimistic forecast in the latest poll was 7.75 by Rabobank, a rate not seen since early 2007.”