USD/IDR again aims for 14,335/45 resistance area as Indonesia GDP disappoints

• Indonesian GDP remained well below market consensus, challenging central bank’s upbeat tone.
• 14,335/45 acts as an immediate upside barrier.

USD/IDR is on the bids around the intra-day high of 14,338 after the first quarter GDP data from Indonesia pleased pair buyers on early Monday.

Indonesian gross domestic production (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) 2019 lagged behind 5.18% forecast and previous to 5.07% on a YoY basis. The growth figure slipped to -0.52% versus -0.40% prediction and -1.69% prior on a quarterly basis.

The data comes in good shape after the headline consumer prices index (CPI) rose during last week. The April month CPI rose +0.44% MoM and 2.83% on a yearly basis.

However, the current rate of growth is still well below the President Joko Widodo’s expectations of 7.0% conveyed during 2014 when he took the office.

Manufacturing has been a key problem in the southeast Asia’s biggest economy. The latest print of the Nikkei Indonesia manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell from 51.2 in March to 50.4 in April.

Indonesia’s central bank has so far announced six interest rate hikes since May 2018. The central bank recently said that present rates are probably near the peak.

Technical Analysis

Having successfully managed to sustained trading above 14,300 mark, the pair requires a successful break of 14,335/45 resistance area (that includes December 19 low and highs marked on January 07 and March 08) in order to aim for March 08 high near 14,416 and 200-day SMA level of 14,480.

On the downside, 100-day SMA level of 14,185 works as important support, a break of which can recall 50-day SMA near 14,150 and then 14,000 round figure back on the chart.