USD/IDR: On the bids amid lesser than expected Indonesia imports/exports data

• USD/IDR ignores downbeat Trade Balance while cheering Imports/Exports numbers.
• Fedspeak, trade/political headlines will provide a fresh impulse for now.

Despite witnessing pullbacks during the day-start, the USD/IDR pair benefits from Indonesia trade data while recovering to 14,150 by the press time of pre-European open on Tuesday.

September month trade numbers for Indonesia suggest higher than forecast decline in the headline Trade Balance figure, to $-0.16B versus $0.10B expected. Further, Imports shrank less than the market consensus of -4.2% to -2.41% whereas Exports followed the suit with -5.74% actual against -5.84% prediction.

The trade release follows upbeat Retail Sales data published during the early part of the month and hence raise barriers for the Bank Indonesia’s (BI) further rate cuts.

On the contrary, political plays in the Asian nations seem against President Joko Widodo with natural challenges being standby, which in turn raises questions on the Indonesian Rupiah’s (IDR) fundamental strength.

Investors will now follow comments from the United States’ (US) Federal Reserve officials, up for speeches during the later part of the day, while also observing any new details on the US-China trade deal that has been pleasing momentum traders off-late.

Technical Analysis

While 14,085/80 limits the pair’s near-term declines, buyers need to cross 14,270/80 for further gains. Hence, the overall trend remains sideways between these levels.