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  • USD/IDR keeps trading beyond 50-day EMA since the month-start.
  • Trades look for Indonesia trade balance, import/export numbers for fresh impulse.
  • Risk aversion in place before the crowded economic calendar shows action.

With the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) keeping USD/IDR supported since month-start, the quote takes the bids to 14,294 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

The US Dollar (USD) recently benefited from the global risk aversion wave after the inversion of 10-year and two-year US treasury yields, which generally precedes macroeconomic slowdown.

On the other hand, the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) remains weak as the Bank Indonesia (BI) continues to favor easy monetary policy while the recent survey showed a drop in the June month’s Retail Sales.

Looking forward, traders will keep an eye over the long economic calendar that begins with Indonesia’s July month trade numbers and stretches to the US Retail Sales, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey and Industrial Production details.

Indonesia’s Trade Balance is expected to register a deficit figure of $-0.42B versus $0.20B prior while Imports and Exports are also likely to slump from 2.80% and -8.98% to -18.12% and -11.40% respectively. On the flip side, most of the US data are bearing downbeat market consensus.

Technical Analysis

Unless breaking 50-day EMA level of 14,165, the quote is less likely to revisit 14,080/75 support-zone and 14,000 round-figure, which in turn favors its further upside towards June month high near 14,420 ahead of challenging current month tops near 14,585.