USD/IDR Price Analysis: Indonesian Rupiah is down but not out

• Indonesia’s Rupiah (IDR) is flashing moderate losses on Thursday.
• USD/IDR’s daily chart remains biased bearish with the spot hovering well under Wednesday’s high.
• The pair could slide toward 15,500 in the short-term.

Indonesia’s Rupiah is trading near 16,200 per US dollar at press time, representing a moderate loss on the day. 

However, the path of least resistance for the IDR remains to the higher side, as the USD/IDR is still trading well within the bearish pin bar-like candle pattern created on USD/IDR’s daily chart on Wednesday. To put it another way, the bearish candlestick pattern is still valid. 

The daily chart is also reporting a bearish divergence of the relative strength index and a bearish crossover of the 5- and 10-day averages. 

The IDR, therefore, is likely to continue gaining altitude in the short-term and push the USD/IDR spot down toward 15,440 (March 27 low). 

The bearish case would be invalidated if the spot prints a daily close above 16,697 (Wednesday’s high). That looks unlikely, as the daily chart indicators have rolled over in favor of the bears, as noted earlier. 

Daily chart

Trend: Bearish

Technical levels