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Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the USD/INR 1 Month NDF saw a minor breach of its 7 month downtrend that was not sustained and is now back under pressure.

Key Quotes

“The erosion of the short term uptrend leaves attention firmly rooted on the 68.65/50 support area. Only if the 68.65/50 support area were to be slipped through, would the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-18 advance at 67.83 be in focus as well as the 67.28/03 zone, made up of the 200 week moving average and the June low. There the NDF may stabilise in this scenario.”

“Above the 70.73 (last weeks high) resistance level the 200 day moving average can be spotted at 71.22 and the February highs at 71.84/72.21.”