“India’s economy seeing a faster return to normal, with COVID-19 curve flattening,” the Barclays Research Team said in a note released Thursday.
Additional takeaways
Raises FY22 growth forecast for India to 8.5% from 7.0%
Expect recent improvement in India manufacturing to broaden to services sector early next year.
See better trajectory for recovery of consumption as well as investment in India.
Forecast that growth in India GDP will resume in Q420, a quarter ahead of RBI’s projections.
Revises India’s FY2020-21 GDP forecast downwards to -6.4% from -6.0% earlier.
Expect India’s Q2 FY2020-21 GDP to register contraction of 8.5% YoY.
Market reaction
USD/INR is off the highs and trades around 74.25, still up 0.20% on a daily basis. The rupee seems to benefit from the upward revisions to the growth forecasts despite the broad-based US dollar strength amid rising covid fears.
- USD/INR Price News: Indian rupee looks north, risk-off may play spoilsport
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