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  • USD/INR stays depressed for third consecutive day.
  • BJP government tables ninth budget with covid vaccine push, more stimulus.
  • Market sentiment stays positive amid US aid package hopes, receding silver frenzy.

USD/INR drops to 72.81, down 0.10% intraday, amid the initial hour of the Indian session on Monday. The Indian rupee gains across the board, jumping to the fresh high since September versus the US dollar, as India’s Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman presents the annual budget in the Parliament house.

Amid a raft of expectations from the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) Government, the initial push for the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations and further stimulus seems to have played a role in keeping the INR on a positive side near September lows re-tested last week.

In addition to the INR 64,180 crores for the PM Atmnirbhar Swasthya Yojana, FM Sitharaman announces INR 35,000 crore for Covid vaccines. The total budgeted outlay for health and welfare has also been pumped by 137% to INR 2,23,846 crore.

It should be noted that the upbeat market sentiment, backed by stimulus and vaccine hopes from the US and the UK also favors the USD/INR bears. That said, the US stock futures gain half a percent while India’s BSE Sensex gains over 1.0% by press time. Also reduction in the market chatters over silver’s likely jump and anticipated trade restrictions add optimism to the mood.

Looking forward, extra updates from India’s Union Budget will be the key for the USD/INR pair while risk catalysts and US ISM Manufacturing PMI could offer extra filters to the directions.

Technical analysis

September low near 72.76 holds the key to USD/INR drop towards the early January 2020 top near 72.22.