TD Securities analysts forecast the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to announce a 170,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls in April.
Key quotes
“While we expect a minor rebound in manufacturing jobs following two disappointing payroll prints, this is likely to be more than offset by a deceleration back to trend in job creation in the services sector, following a stronger-than-expected bump in March. That said, the blowout ADP employment report creates upside risks for another stronger-than-expected pace of service sector job creation in April.”
“All in, the household survey should show the unemployment rate ticked down a tenth to 3.7%, assuming no major swings in the labor force participation rate. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2% m/m. This pace of wage growth should leave the annual print unchanged at 3.2%. However, if we get a “soft” 0.2% increase for last month, the annual pace in wage growth would slow to 3.1%.”
“USD is likely to focus on the mix of job and wage growth. A downside miss on both could lead to some fresh consolidation in the FX market into the weekend. The key theme relates to the intersection of global growth and risk sentiment. Another focus now is whether the Fed plans to sit on the sidelines rather than follow OIS pricing that is looking for a cut. Our baseline would likely offer a quick sting to the USD, favoring EM over G10, especially for a print that shows a profile of decent growth and soft inflation.”
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