- USD/JPY on the front foot at start of the week.
- US elections and FOMC to highlight for the week.
USD/JPY has started on the front foot in Tokyo rising from 113.11 to a high of 113.24 following a solid end to last week’s better bid performance where the pair climbed from the 111.80 regions to 113.32 the high. US Treasury yields were underpinning the greenback and the US 10yr treasury yield rose from 3.14% to 3.22% – a one-month high, while the 2yr yield rose from 2.85% to 2.91%. Fed fund futures yields repriced the chance of another rate hike in December at 80% (from 75%). Another factor that was supportive was with the US recording robust job gains in October.
The non-farm payrolls was rising by 250k against expectations for a 200k increase. “Another detail was generally in line with expectations, depicting a labour market that is on a firm footing and an economy coasting at an above trend growth pace: the unemployment rate held steady at close to fifty year lows of 3.7%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, lifting the annual rate to a headline-grabbing 3.1% from 2.9%, a nine-year high,” analysts at Westpac explained.
Looking ahead for the week
- Key events for the week ahead – Nomura
Looking ahead or the week, a variety of factors – public polling, fund raising, early voting and expert opinion – suggest Democrats are likely to take control of the House while Republicans are likely to retain control of the Senate, according to analysts at Nomura. Such an outcome could affect consumer confidence and dent the dollar. We also get FOMC although markets are expecting many new developments this meeting around.
USD/JPY levels
- Support levels: 113.00 112.60 112.30.
- Resistance levels: 113.40 113.85 114.10.
Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that the pair heads into the weekly opening with a positive technical stance:
“In the daily chart, its holding well above a bullish 100 SMA after flirting with it by the end of October, while technical indicatorshead north above their midlines, the Momentum heading sharply higher at levels last seen 1 month ago, and the RSI at 56. In the 4 hours chart, the pair held above the 200 SMA, but the 100 SMA remains below the larger one, limiting the upward potential. The Momentum indicator in this last time-frame remains directionless around its 100 level, while the RSI advances into positive ground, all of which favors another leg higher without confirming it. For the bullish case to be firmer, the pair would need to break above the 113.40 resistance.”
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