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Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the USD/JPY continues to creep slowly higher, its recent new low of 105.05 was not been confirmed by the daily RSI.

Key Quotes

“We suspect that the market may have based just ahead of the 104.48/10 January low and the 2013-2019 uptrend. This support is reinforced by the 200 month ma at 104.44. Interim resistance is the 107.21 18th July low and the market remains capped here, as such we remain unable to rule out another stab down towards the 104.50 region prior to recovery. A negative bias remains entrenched while capped by the 108.99/109.32 recent highs.”

“Failure at 104.10 would target 99.00 the 2016 low, but for now we would allow for consolidation and look for the market to hold circa 104.50/10.”