Search ForexCrunch
  • Disappointment from the US Fed and the JPY’s safe haven status dragged the quote to a 3-week low.
  • Lack of headline data from the US and holiday at Japan may limit the moves around important support.

USD/JPY trades near the three-week low of 110.40 ahead of European open on Thursday. The quote stretched its downward trajectory forward as the US Dollar (USD) remained on back-foot against the majority of its counterparts following the Federal Reserve meeting. Also weighing on the prices is risk aversion due to Brexit and the US-China trade deal.

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve revised its rate-hike and growth projections downwards while leaving the overall monetary policy unchanged. With no rate-hikes expected until 2020, traders preferred USD selling.

The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, benefited from the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and the trade deal between the world’s two largest economies, namely China and the US.
It should also be noted that the safe haven status of the JPY kept dragging the pair towards important 110.35 support confluence in spite of Vernal Equinox Day holiday at Japan.

While risk aversion can continue compressing the pair prices, the US data will be observed for predicting immediate market moves. Among them, weekly initial jobless claims till March 15 and current month Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey will be the key.

The jobless figure may decline to 225K from 229K whereas manufacturing survey can please USD buyers if matching +4.5 consensus against -4.1 prior.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

With the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and an upward sloping support-line since January 04 offers strong support to the pair around 110.35, a break of which might not hesitate printing 110.00 and 109.80 on the chart.

On the upside, 111.10 and 200-day SMA level of 111.45 can limit the pair’s near-term advances whereas 111.90 and 112.20 could please buyers afterward.