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The Federal Reserve was in the spotlight last week, as Jerome Powell appeared before congressional and senate committees. Powell’s message was dovish, sending the U.S .dollar down and equity markets higher. Powell said the Fed was prepared to “act as appropriate” and noted his concern over low inflation and weak global conditions. Powell’s message has raised expectations of a rate cut later in July, and this was reiterated by the Federal Reserve minutes, which were dovish. The CME Group has priced a rate cut at 77%. On the inflation front, June data was mixed. The headline reading remained unchanged at 0.1%. Core CPI improved to 0.3%, its strongest gain since January 2018.
Updates:
111.69 was the high point of the yen rally in the first half of May. 111.15 follows.
110.40 (mentioned last week), is the next resistance line.
109.73 has held in resistance since the end of May. 109.35 is close by.
108.70 was last tested in mid-June.
108.10 remained relevant last week. This line was a swing low in late May.
107.50 is providing support. This line capped the pair in early April. 106.61 is next.
105.55 has held in support since early January.
104.65 is the final support level for now.
I remain bearish on USD/JPY
With the markets expecting a rate cut as early as July, the U.S. dollar could face some headwinds. With tensions in the Persian Gulf still high, the safe-haven Japanese yen could gain ground.
Further reading:
Safe trading!
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