USD/JPY Forecast March 11-15 – Will BoJ provide more of the same?

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Dollar/yen reversed directions last week, has the yen posted its first winning week since January. The BoJ will be in the spotlight this week, and investors will be looking for hints of any changes in monetary policy. In the U.S., the key events are retail sales and consumer inflation reports.

USD/JPY fundamental movers

Japanese GDP rebounded in Q4, posting a gain of 0.5%. This follows a decline of 0.6% in the third quarter. The yen gained ground on Friday, after the U.S. posted stunningly low nonfarm payrolls in February. The score of just 20,000 new jobs was nowhere near the estimate of 180 thousand.

See all the main events in the Forex Weekly Outlook

Key news updates for USD/JPY

Updates:

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

115.55 was a high point in the first half of 2017 and remains an upside target. 114.60 was the high point in early October and has held in resistance since then.

114.25 was the high point in November. 114 is a round number and was a stepping stone on the way down. Close by, 113.80 was a resistance line in November.

113.15 was a swing high back in July. 112.25 provided support in early December and it defends the 112 level.

112.73 was an important resistance line in October.

112.25 provided support in early December and it defends the 112 level.

111.65 was a swing low in October, Close by, 111.40 was another swing low in October.

111.15 (mentioned last week) held in support throughout the week, but the pair broke through on Friday.

Close by, 109.35 was a cushion in mid-July.

108.70 was a cushion early in the summer and 108.10 a swing low in late May.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

https://www.tradingview.com/x/HSVw7Xy3/

USD/JPY Sentiment

I am bearish on USD/JPY

With risk sentiment growing over a possible U.S-China detente, the safe-haven yen could continue to have trouble attracting investors. The BoJ is plodding along and is unlikely to make any changes to interest rate levels. which are in negative territory. As well, the slowdown in China continues to weigh on the Japanese economy, as China is Japan’s most important trading partner.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.