USD/JPY Forecast May 20-24 – Dollar stops slide at 110

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After posting losses for four straight weeks, Dollar/yen week, ticked higher last week. The pair dropped as low as 109, its lowest level since late January. Investors will be keeping an eye on Japanese Preliminary GDP, which is expected to decline by 0.1%.

USD/JPY fundamental movers

The yen hasn’t received much help from economic conditions in Japan or Bank of Japan policy, but rising tensions between the U.S. and China have bolstered the yen, which has gained 1.2% in the month of May. Risk appetite has sagged and investors have snapped up the safe-haven yen.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China rose sharply last week. The U.S. and China exchanged tariffs on each other products, dampening hopes for a trade deal and weighing on risk appetite. Nervous investors have been dumping equities in favor of safe-haven assets, such as the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen. On Friday, the U.S. raised tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods, from 10% to 25%. The move was announced a week ago, triggering sharp declines in the equity markets. The Chinese response was vigorous, as China retaliated with tariffs on $60 billion of U.S products. Although the U.S.and China are scheduled to continue trade talks, investors are wary after the latest tariff battle.

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Key news updates for USD/JPY

Updates:

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

114.25 was the high point in November. Close by, 113.80 was a resistance line in November.

113.15 was a swing high back in July.

112.73 was an important resistance line in October.

112.25 has held in resistance since December.

111.69 was the high point of the current slide which started in early May. 111.15 follows.

110.40 (mentioned last week), is the next resistance line.

109.73 remained relevant during the week.

Close by, 109.35 was a cushion in mid-July.

108.70 was a cushion early in the summer and 108.10 was a swing low in late May.

107.50 capped the pair in early April.

106.61 is the final support level for now.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

https://www.tradingview.com/x/lqaRWjfd/

USD/JPY Sentiment

I remain neutral on USD/JPY

With investors casting a worried eye on tensions between the U.S. and China, the safe-haven yen is an attractive asset. At the same time, the U.S. economy is firing on all four cylinders, while the Japanese economy has been treading water and remains fragile.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.