USD/JPY Forecast November 25-29 – Yen steady, inflation and retail sales ahead

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Dollar/yen showed little movement last week. Investors are keeping an eye on Japanese inflation and retail sales reports.

USD/JPY fundamental movers

In Japan, the manufacturing sector continues to sputter. Manufacturing PMI was almost unchanged in October, with a reading of 48.6. The PMI has been in contraction territory since January.

Over in the U.S., policymakers said that the Fed would take a break from recent rate cuts unless there was a significant change in economic conditions. The rate cut in October was considered hawkish, as the Fed took pains to reassure investors that the U.S. economy was in good shape, despite the rate cut. The minutes noted that U.S. economic conditions were generally positive, with an outlook of moderate growth, a robust labor market and inflation close to the Fed’s target of 2 percent.

See all the main events in the Forex Weekly Outlook

Key news updates for USD/JPY

Updates:

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

We start with resistance at 112.25.

111.62 was last active in April. 110.62 is next.

109.73 has held in resistance since the end of May. 109.35 is close by.

108.70 is a weak resistance line. 108.10 is next.

107.30 (mentioned last week) switched to support in early October.

106.61 is next.

105.55 has held in support since late August. It is the final support level for now.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Sentiment

I am neutral on USD/JPY

The U.S. and China have failed to reach an agreement on ending their nasty trade war, with conflicting signals as to the amount of progress that has been made in the talks. The Japanese economy remains weak, and it will likely take a rise in risk apprehension in order for the yen to gain ground.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.