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Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that USD/JPY has rallied higher last week above the 200 day ma and into 5 month highs.

Key Quotes

“It is losing upside momentum ahead of tough resistance which extends from current levels up to the 2015-2019 downtrend at 110.79 (the 55 and 200 week moving averages are found ahead of here at 109.57/109.98). This is formidable resistance and it should hold the topside.”

“Near term the market is bid while above the uptrend at 108.36 and we would allow for some upside probes. Failure at the recent low of 107.89 is needed to alleviate upside pressure and trigger losses to the 106.48 October low.”

“Failure at 106.48 will target 106.00, then 105.32/78.6% retracement which is the last defence for the 104.46 August low.”