USD/JPY is a touch higher amid a broadly-stronger USD after the Bank of Japan policy meeting came and went overnight without much fanfare. However, economists at TD Securities expect the yen to remain on a solid foot and forecast the USD/JPY below the 100 level.
Key quotes
“The BoJ kept policy unchanged but extended some virus support programs. The BoJ also unexpectedly launched a broad policy review – although YCC is likely to remain in place and negative rates also do not appear to be on the table either. This should keep the JPY on a firm footing.”
“Interestingly, however, Kuroda explicitly said during his press conference that he did not see a ‘need for strong concerns about the yen for now’. He also attributed recent developments to Dollar weakness. While this is certainly correct, the lack of any real pushback is a green light for the further steady grind lower in the pair that we expect over the next year. We see USD/JPY below, finishing 2021 at 99.”
“USD/JPY has bounced after sliding to a fresh post-pandemic low just under 103 on Thursday. We are inclined to fade this move, however, and think the yen should stay firm even if our expectation that the USD may bounce proves correct. We think 102.35 is likely to be the next port of call to any further move lower.”
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