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The Canadian dollar  suffered  sharp losses last week, slipping about 170 points alongside the crash in oil prices and despite good data at home.  USD/CAD  climbed above the 1.14 line for the first time since July 2009 and closed at 1.1402. The upcoming week is   a busy one, with  five key events.  Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Canadian retail sales numbers improved in September and GDP improved with a gain of 0.4%. Still, the positive numbers were not enough to stop the  Canadian dollar’s  sharp slide. The large batch of US data before Thanksgiving was largely disappointing: durable goods orders were mixed,  unemployment claims missed the estimate,  and housing numbers softened.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDCADUpdate”/]

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

USDCADForecast Dec.1-5

  1. BOC Rate Statement: Wednesday, 15:00.  The BOC will  announce the benchmark interest rate for December in a rate statement. The rate has been pegged at 1.00% since   September 2010, and no change is expected. The Bank of Canada made a small shift in its stance towards inflation, as it is no longer “temporary”.
  2. BOC Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks: Wednesday, 22:30. Poloz will speak at an event in Toronto.  The markets will be monitoring his speech closely, as it comes just hours after the BOC Rate Statement.
  3. Ivey PMI: Thursday, 15:00. Ivey PMI dropped sharply in October, dropping to 51.2 points. This was well short of the estimate of 59.2 points. The index has been above the 50-point line since June, which indicates expansion. The estimate for the upcoming reading stands at 53.2 points.
  4. Employment Change: Friday, 1:30. The indicator posted  a strong gain  in October, with a reading of 43.1 thousand. This crushed the estimate of -3.9 thousand. The forecast for the November reading stands at 5.9 thousand. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.5% in October, beating the estimate of 6.8%. The estimate for the upcoming release stands at 6.6%.
  5. Trade Balance: Friday, 13:30. This indicator can affect the movement of USD/CAD, since foreigners must buy Canadian dollars to purchase the country’s exports. Trade Balance improved in September, posting surplus of C$0.7 billion. This was much stronger than the estimate of C$-0.7 billion.   The markets are expecting a smaller surplus in the upcoming release, with an estimate of C$0.4 billion.
  6. Labor Productivity: Friday, 13:30. This indicator is released each quarter, magnifying the impact of each release. In Q2, the indicator produced a strong gain of 1.8%, well above the estimate of 0.1%. Another strong reading is expected for Q3, with a forecast of 1.5%.

* All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.1231 and  touched a low of 1.1224.  It was all uphill from there, as the pair climbed to a high of 1.1444, as support held at 1.1494 (discussed last week). USD/CAD closed the week at 1.1402.

Live chart of USD/CAD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDCAD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

With the US dollar posting sharp gains, we begin at higher levels:

118.72 was a key resistance line in February 2007. It has remained intact since then.

117.52 marked  the start of  a  rally  by the Canadian dollar in  February 2007, which saw  USD/CAD  drop below parity.  1.1640 is next.

1.1494 weakened as the Canadian dollar fell sharply during the week.

1.1333  was easily breached by the pair and has switched to a  support role. It could face pressure if the Canadian dollar rebounds this week.

1.1271 is providing strong support.

1.1122  marks the low point of a US dollar rally which started late in October and saw USD/CAD climb above 1.14 earlier in November.

1.1054  remains a strong support line. 1.0944  is next.

1.0815 has held firm since late August. It is the final support line for now.

I  remain  bullish on USD/CAD

There wasn’t much holiday cheer from US numbers ahead of Thanksgiving, but the US remains on track for rate tightening in 2015. The Canadian dollar is on a sharp downturn, even though last week’s Canadian numbers were respectable. So we could see the weak Canadian currency continue to falter.

In our latest podcast, we talk about holiday trading, run through the US situation, talk about the elections and the BOE and analyze China’s rate cut:

Download it directly here.

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Further reading: