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The Canadian dollar  was unchanged  last week, as USD/CAD  closed the week at 1.1615. There are no Canadian releases  in the upcoming  week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

In the US,  key releases painted a mixed picture.  The final read of GDP for Q3 was excellent, with a rate of 5% annualized growth. Unemployment Claims looked sharp, but durable goods orders and housing data was rather weak. There was just one Canadian release last week, as GDP edged  lower to  0.3%, above the forecast of 0.1%.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDCADUpdate”/]

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

USDCADForecast Dec.29-Jan.2

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.1610 and  touched a high of 1.1667, testing resistance at 1.1640 (discussed last week). The pair  then reversed directions and  dropped  to a  low of 1.1558. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.1615.

Live chart of USD/CAD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDCAD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

119.75 is  protecting the psychologically important level of 1.20. This line has held firm since November 2005.

118.72 was a key resistance line in February 2007. It has remained intact since then.

1.1752 marked  the start of  a  rally  by the Canadian dollar in  February 2007, which saw  USD/CAD  drop below parity.

1.1640 was tested for a second straight week, as the pair posted gains early in the week before retracting sharply.

1.1487 remains a support line.

1.1340  is providing strong support. 1.1271 is  next.

1.1122  marks the low point of a US dollar rally which started late in October and saw USD/CAD climb above 1.14 earlier in November.

1.1053  is the final support level for now. It is providing support above the psychologically important line of 1.10.

I  am neutral  on USD/CAD

USD/CAD has spent the last two weeks close to the 1.16 line, and we could see the lack of movement continue in the week between Christmas and New Year’s, which will see subdued trading.  There are no Canadian releases next week so the several key US  events will have added significance, and could cause some volatility if the readings  surprise the markets.

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