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The Canadian dollar enjoyed back wind from Russia, but then suffered from the Dubai crisis, like everybody else. This week provides very important releases: GDP and employment numbers which will shake the loonie. Here’s an outlook for the events in Canada, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
USD/CAD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:
The Russian central bank announced that some transactions would be in Canadian dollars and this sent USD/CAD down, but quite temporarily. Let’s review the events in Canada, which happen at the beginning and at the end of the week:
- GDP: Canada is unique with the release of the monthly Gross Domestic Product. The upcoming release, on Monday at 13:30 GMT, is for the month of September, which will close Q3. Changes in the economy have been small, around zero. Last month’s GDP didin’t meet expectations, and fell by 0.1%. This time, a rise of the same scale is predicted.
- RMPI: The raw materials price index is an important figure for the Canadian economy. Prices have fallen by 1.1% last month, disappointing the loonie. This time, a jump of 2.9% is predicted in this rather volatile index. A stronger growth is necessary in order to have an early rate hike. Also published on Monday at 13:30 GMT, under the shadow of the GDP release.
- Employment figures: Canada saw sharp changes in the employment situation. Two months ago, 30.6K jobs were added, and the unemployment rate fell sharply to 8.4%. These excellent figures sure helped the loonie. But last month, Canada’s employment change showed a loss of 43.3K jobs, erasing more jobs that were gained one month earlier. Also the unemployment rate jumped back to 8.6%. This time, both figures aren’t expected to change dramatically, but surprises can always happen. These figures are published on Friday at 12:00 GMT, 90 minutes before the all-important American Non-Farm Payrolls.
- Ivey PMI: 90 minutes after the American NFP, on Friday at 15:00 GMT, another important release comes from Canada: The Richard Ivey School of Business publishes this optimistic purchasing managers’ index. This index is positive, above 50 for 5 consecutive months, exceeding expectations in the past 3 months and reaching 61.2 points last month. It’s predicted to edge down this time.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD/CAD with a fall down to 1.0450, but was swept upwards, as high as 1.0758, before closing at 1.0617. All in all, the Canadian dollar gained against the greenback.
The immediate support line appears at 1.06, which was the upper limit of the range, but was broken too many times, and is now only a minor support line. Below that, 1.04 serves as the next support line. This line was tested again this week, and proved strong.
Further below, the year-to-date low of 1.02 is the next support, and parity, 1.0000 is the ultimate support line. Note that most of the lines haven’t changed since last week’s outlook.
Looking up, 1.0853 was the peak in November, and now serves as a resistance line. The next line of resistance appears at 1.1130, a line that was tested several times in the summer, and provides strong resistance.
I continue to stay neutral on USD/CAD for another week.
The important economic releases of the GDP and employment need to be strong to turn the sentiment to bearish. They will probably be OK, but not outstanding.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
- For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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