The Canadian dollar rebounded last week, gaining over 100 cents against the US dollar. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.0962. This week’s highlight is Core Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
US unemployment claims dropped sharply last week, and the Fed hinted that once rates are raised, subsequent hikes could take place more quickly than expected. Still, the Canadian dollar came out on top last week, buoyed by strong manufacturing and inflation numbers.[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDCADUpdate”/]
USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- BOC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkin Speaks: Monday, 17:00. Wilkin will address an event in Toronto. Any remarks which are “out of the ordinary” could affect the movement of USD/CAD.
- Core Retail Sales: Tuesday, 12:30. This is the key event of the week. The indicator excludes automobile sales, which are volatile and can distort the overall trend. In July, the indicator surprised with a strong gain of 1.5%, well above the estimate of 0.4%. The markets are expecting a downturn in the upcoming release, with the estimate standing at -0.1%.
- Retail Sales: Tuesday, 12:30. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending. The indicator posted an excellent gain of 1.1% last month, easily beating the estimate of 0.3%. The estimate for the August release stands at 0.4%.
* All times are GMT.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD/CAD opened the week at 1.1088. The pair touched a high of 1.1099, as resistance held firm at 1.1122 (discussed last week). The pair then reversed directions, dropping to a low of 1.0886. The Canadian dollar was unable to consolidate at these levels and USD/CAD closed at 1.0962.
Live chart of USD/CAD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDCAD” interval=”60″/]
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
With USD/CAD posting strong losses, we begin at lower levels:
1.1494 was a key resistance line in November 2006.
1.1369 was breached in October 2008 as the US dollar posted sharp gains, climbing as high as the 1.21 level. This line has remained steady since July 2009.
1.1278 has provided resistance since March. This line marked the start of a rally by the Canadian dollar, which dropped below the 1.09 level.
1.1122 held firm as the pair came close to the 1.11 level. This line is weak resistance.
1.1054 was breached by the surging US dollar and starts the week as an immediate support line.
1.0944 has reverted to a support role and is a strong line.
1.0815 had been under pressure but gained some breathing room as the pair trades at higher levels.
1.0737 marked a cap in mid-2010, before the US dollar tumbled and dropped all the way into 0.93 territory.
1.0621 marked a low point for the pair in early July.
1.0412 was an important support line in November 2012, when USD/CAD posted a strong rally which saw it climb above the 1.12 level. It is the final support level for now.
I am bullish on USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar recovered nicely last week, but the US dollar has shown broad strength and could rebound this week. The FOMC statement helped the greenback as QE winds up and the guessing game as to the timing of a rate hike begins in earnest.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.