USD/CAD Outlook April 7-11

The Canadian dollar  showed some improvement on Friday and gained close to a cent on the week. The pair closed below the 1.10 level, at 1.0969. There are just four events this week, highlighted by Building Permits. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

The Canadian dollar got some help on Friday, as Canadian Employment  Change had its best showing since October, and the unemployment rate dipped below 6.9%. South of the border, Non-farm Employment Change improved in March but fell short of expectations.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDCADUpdate”/] USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it.

Click to enlarge:      USDCAD Forecast Apr7-11

  1. BOC Business Outlook Survey: Monday, 14:30. This highly-respected report is released each quarter and can impact on the movement of USD/CAD. The report surveys 100 businesses which are asked for their opinions on a wide range of business  conditions.
  2. Housing Starts: Tuesday, 12:15. Housing Starts recovered in February, rising to 192 thousand. This was slightly higher than the estimate of 190 thousand. The markets are not expecting much movement, with the  March estimate standing at 193 thousand.
  3. Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. This is the key event of the week. Building Permits tends to show sharp fluctuations, resulting in estimates that are often well off the mark. After two declines, the indicator bounced back nicely in February, with a sharp gain of 8.5%. This cruised past the estimate of 1.9%. The markets are bracing for a decline in the upcoming reading, with the estimate standing at -2.4%. Will the indicator surprise the markets and remain in positive territory?
  4. NHPI: Thursday, 12:30. The New House Pricing Index is an important gauge of activity in the housing sector. The index has been marked by very small gains, and last month’s reading of 0.3% was the sharpest gain in almost two years. The estimate for the March reading is 0.2%.

*All times are GMT.


USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD  opened the week at 1.1051 and touched a high of 1.1070. The pair then reversed directions,  dropping below the 1.10 level and touching a low of 1.0957, as support at 1.0945 (discussed last week) remained firm.  USD/CAD  closed the week at 1.1069.

Live chart of USD/CAD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDCAD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

1.1617 marked a high point for the pair in July 2009, at which time the Canadian dollar posted  a rally in which USD/CAD dipped below the 0.94 line. 1.1535 provided key support back in early 2007. It has been a resistance line since July 2009.

1.1369 fell in October 2008 as the US dollar posted  sharp gains, climbing as high as the 1.21 level.

1.1124  has strengthened as a  resistance line as the Canadian dollar continues to improve.

The key psychological barrier of 1.10  was breached last week, and this line has switched to a resistance role. It is not a strong line and could see more action early this week.

1.0945  is  providing  support to USD/CAD. It has weakened as the Canadian dollar trades below the 1.10 level.

1.0853 is the next support line. 1.0723 was a cap in mid-2010, before the US dollar tumbled and dropped all the way into 0.93 territory.

1.0660 saw a lot of activity in the second half of December and continues to provide strong support.

1.0519 is the final support level for now. It has been a strong support line since late November.

I am  neutral on USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar had another  good week thanks to strong employment numbers, and has pushed  below the key 1.10 level. We could see the loonie continue to benefit into the new week. Market sentiment remains generally positive about the US economy, but Fed chair Janet Yellen sounded quite cautious last week, and her remarks weighed on the greenback. The release of the FOMC minutes during the week could impact on USD/CAD.

Further reading:

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.