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The Canadian dollar showed some improvement, as USD/CAD  posted modest losses. The pair  closed the week below the 1.03 line. This week’s major release is Manufacturing Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Canadian releases were a mix last week, as Building Approvals and Ivey PMI faltered. However, a strong Employment Claims release buoyed the loonie towards the end of the week as it posted gains against its US counterpart.

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USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:   USD CAD Aug12-16 Technical Analysis

  1. BOC Review: Thursday, 14:30. This monthly report from the BOC is a third-tier release and is unlikely to have any significant impact on USD/CAD. The report contains articles about economic conditions and the BOC.
  2. Manufacturing Sales: Friday, 12:30. This key indicator posted a gain of 0.7% in July, breaking a streak of two straight declines. The markets are expecting another decline in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 0.5%.
  3. Foreign Securities Purchases: Friday, 12:30. This indicator is directly related to purchases of Canadian dollars, as foreigners must purchase the Canadian  currency in order  to buy Canadian securities. The indicator tends to show strong fluctuations from month to month. In July, purchases fell to 6.74 billion dollars, well off the estimate of 10.23 billion. The estimate for the August release stands at 7.77 billion dollars.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.0358 and  climbed to a high of 1.0445, as the resistance line of 1.0446 (discussed last week) held firm. The pair then dropped to a low of 1.0275  and closed the week at  1.0288.

Live chart of USD/CAD:

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Technical lines, from top to bottom:

We  begin  with resistance at 1.0853. This line  has remained intact  since September 2009.

1.0705 saw a lot of action in  January 2010, but  has quietly provided strong resistance since that time. 1.0652 has been providing resistance since early September 2010.

1.0523 was a peak back in November 2011. It has provided strong resistance since July.

1.0446 was a cap in mid-July. It was tested during the week as USD/CAD moved higher early in the week. With the pair dropping below the 1.03 level, this line has some breathing room.

1.0340 is back in a resistance role. It is a weak line and could see action early next week.

1.0250 worked as support quite well in March 2013 and starts off the week as a support line. It is not a strong line, and could face strong pressure if the Canadian dollar picks up where it left off and continues to move higher.

1.0180 provided support for the pair during March, and saw a lot of activity in the first half of June. The round number of 1.01 was a trough back in July 2012 and switched to resistance afterwards. The line proved its strength several times in 2013, most recently in mid-May.

1.0050 provided support for the pair in May 2013 and in other occasions beforehand. It remains a barrier before parity. The very round number of USD/CAD parity is a clear line and has provided support since mid-February.

0.9910 was last tested in January, which marked the start of a strong US dollar rally which saw USD/CAD climb to the mid-1.03 range.

The round number of 0.9800 marked a low point of a rally by the US dollar in April 2012, and has remained in place since October.

The final support line for now is 0.9693. This line saw a lot of activity in mid- 2011 and has remained intact since September 2012.

I  am  bullish  on USD/CAD

The Canadian economy continues to have trouble,  underscored by weak  PMI and  construction numbers last week.  If the US posts respectable numbers this week, especially employment figures, speculation about QE tapering will increase and such talk could push the US dollar higher.

Further reading: