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Looking for the latest outlook for this week? Check the full section: Canadian Dollar Forecast


The Canadian dollar enjoyed the American NFP, and USD/CAD traded lower. The upcoming week is mostly about housing sector numbers that helped the loonie in the past. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming events in Canada, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD, now that’s it out of the range.

USD/CAD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

USD/CAD Forecast

Canadian employment figures were a disappointment but not too bad. Canada saw a small loss of jobs last month. This hurt the loonie but only temporarily. Let’s start:

  1. Housing Starts: Published on Monday at 13:15 GMT. The first of two important housing sector figures has posted steady and expected growth in recent months, reaching 159K, the highest in almost a year. It’s expected to rise a bit higher this time to 161K.
  2. Building Permits: Published on Monday at 13:30 GMT. Only 15 minutes later, the second housing figure is published. Here it’s a different story. Canadian building permits shot up by 18% (!) last month, pushing the Canadian dollar higher. After three months of rises, a drop in permits is predicted – 1.1%, and probably won’t hurt the loonie after the huge leap last month.
  3. BOC Business Outlook Survey: Published on Monday at 15:30 GMT. The Bank of Canada surveys 100 leading businesses and asks them about the current economic conditions. There is no bottom-line score for this report, but rather a general notion. The report comes ahead of the rate decision next week. If the report is good, a possible change in policy can be predicted, now that inflation is somewhat higher.
  4. Timothy Lane speaks: BOC Deputy Governor Timothy Lane will begin speaking at 19:20 GMT. As inflation is rising in Canada, the central bank might adjust its schedule. Lane is Mark Carney’s deputy, and he can indicate a tighter schedule for tightening the rates – earlier than the end of Q2, which is the timing proposed in the recent rate decisions. In his speech, he’ll probably also speak about the housing sector.
  5. Trade Balance: Published on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT. Last month marked a change for Canada: the deficit that Canada was in for 6 months was replaced with a surplus. Although 0.4 billion is a small surplus, it stands out against the American deficit, which is growing. Also this week, a double-feature release is expected: American trade balance will be released at the exact same time. The Canadian surplus is predicted to rise to 0.9 billion.
  6. NHPI: Published on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT, and overshadowed by the trade balance release at the same time. The last housing sector figure for this week relates to prices. The New Housing Price Index posted steady rises in the past four months, with a 0.3% rise last month. A similar rise is predicted this time.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The Canadian dollar began the week by securing the break below 1.04. It later continued lower and traded between 1.0292 and 1.0383, closing the week at 1.0297 – which is a strong sign.

The range of 1.04 to 1.0750 was finally broken – to the downside. The lines haven’t been changed from last week’s outlook, only the role of 1.04: 1.04 changes its role from a support line to a resistance line. Further above, 1.0750 continues to serve as a resistance line – the upper border of the range.

Further above, 1.0850 was a peak before the loonie got into the range. Even higher, 1.1130 was tested several times as a resistance line.

Looking down, 1.0205 was the 2009 low and now serves as a strong support line. The ultimate support line is parity. USD/CAD was last seen in July 2008, and isn’t far anymore.

My sentiment turned bearish on USD/CAD

After a long time of neutral sentiment, the solid Canadian figures, high price of oil and the break of the 1.04 line convince me that the direction is down – despite the small loss in jobs.

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