USD/CAD Outlook July 22-26

USD/CAD  was almost unchanged  last week,  as  the pair close at 1.0362. In contrast to last week, the upcoming week is very quiet, with just two releases. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD did not show much reaction  to US Federal Reserve chair Bernard Bernanke’s testimony in Washington last week.  In the US, Building Permits missed the estimate, but there was better news late in the week from Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. North of the border, there were no surprises from the Bank of Canada, as Stephen Poloz presided over his first policy meeting. Canadian Core CPI was a  disappointment, posting its first decline in 2013.

Updates:

• The loonie is enjoying the greenback’s weakness, and USD/CAD is down to 1.0350.
• US existing home sales disappoint  and fall to 5.08 million (annualized). This triggers  another wave of dollar dropping. USD/CAD is below 1.0350.
• USD/CAD continues to grind lower and already trades at 1.0325.
• Opinion:  The Loonie May Pick Up Steam on an Improving Economic Outlook
• Canadian retail sales leap by 1.9% and USD/CAD falls to 1.03. Also core sales exceeded expectations. This is one of the best weeks for the Canadian dollar.
• Technical Analysis: USD/CAD outlook remains negative.
• USD/CAD continued falling and went down as low as 1.0277 before climbing back above 1.03.
• Video:  Where next for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD
• USD/CAD is pushing lower and already reached a low of 1.0261. It rides on the dollar weakness.
• US New home sales reach 497K – the highest in 5 years  – the dollar rises. USD/CAD moves towards 1.03 but doesn’t break higher.
• USD/CAD eventually tops 1.03, even though the US dollar is retreating against many other currencies.
• The US dollar is sold off towards the end of the week, with no exception. USD/CAD cemented its position under 1.03.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  

1. Core Retail Sales: Tuesday, 12:30. Core Retail Sales is this week’s key release. The indicator has posted two consecutive declines, pointing to weakness in consumer spending. Last month’s release came in at -0.3%, missing the estimate of 0.0%. The markets are expecting better news in the upcoming release, with an estimate of a modest gain of 0.1%. Will the indicator follow through and push into positive territory?
2. Retail Sales:  Tuesday, 12:30.  Unlike Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales includes automobile sales, which can  be volatile and result in a  distortion of  the underlying trend. However,  it  is still an important measure of consumer spending.  The indicator has posted weak readings of 0.0% and 0.1% in the past two readings, missing the estimates both times. The markets are expecting better news in the July release, with an estimate of a 0.4% gain.

* All times are GMT

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Dollar/CAD  had a quiet week.  The pair opened the week at 1.0389. Dollar/CAD rose to a high of 1.0442, as the resistance line of 1.0446 (discussed last week) held firm. The pair then retracted, dropping to a low of 1.0355 and  closed the week at 1.0362.

Live chart of USD/CAD:

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

We  start with resistance at 1.0853. This line  has remained intact  since September 2009.

1.0705 saw a lot of action in  January 2010, but  has quietly provided solid resistance since that time. 1.0652 has been providing resistance since early September 2010.

1.0523 was a peak back in November 2011. It has strengthened as  the Canadian dollar posted strong gains earlier in July.

1.0446 was the peak that the pair recorded in June 2012 and is again a key line on the upside. This line held firm as USD/CAD came very close but was unable to break through.

1.0340 was the peak during March 2013, and continues to provide weak support to the pair. The pair came close to this line  last week  but it held firm. It could see more activity early this week.

1.0250 was a peak before the pair moved below parity a long time ago, and worked as support quite well in March 2013. 1.0180 provided support for the pair during March, and saw a lot of activity in the first half of June. It continues to provide the pair with strong support.

The round number of 1.01 was a trough back in July 2012 and switched to resistance afterwards. The line proved its strength several times in 2013.

1.0050 provided support for the pair in May 2013 and in other occasions beforehand. It remains a barrier before parity. The very round number of USD/CAD parity is a clear line of course, and the battle was very clear to see at the beginning of August 2012 and also in early 2013.

0.9910 was last tested in January, which marked the start of a strong US dollar rally which saw USD/CAD climb to the mid-1.03 range.

The final support line for now is at the round number of 0.9800. It marked a low point of a rally by the US dollar in April 2012, and has remained in place since October.

I  am bearish  on USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar continues to trade below the 1.04 line, and has been able to hold onto the gains that it posted earlier this month. However, the loonie has had difficulty moving higher, and concerns remain over the health of the Canadian economy, which the  BOC  noted is underperforming.  USD/CAD could move higher  if this week’s Canadian retail sales numbers are not strong.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
• USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.