The only Canadian numbers last week were a disappointment, as Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales fell below expectations. The US dollar spent much of the week above the 1.03 level, as the Canadian dollar remains under pressure.
Updates:
- US markets were closed on Monday, resulting in thin trading and little movement by USD/CAD. Canada will release Corporate Profits on Tuesday.
- The markets are keeping an eye on the Bank of Canada, which will set its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday. The BOC is expected to maintain the current level of 1.00%. USD/CAD was trading at 1.0351.
- A better than expected consumer confidence number in the US pushed USD/CAD higher. The 5 year high in confidence is raising speculation of QE tapering.
- USD/CAD breaks to a new high and touches 1.04. The next resistance line is at 1.0446.
- Violent USD correction sends USD/CAD towards support at 1.0360 – the rise above 1.04 was temporary.
- The BOC leaves rates unchanged. The statement is not that dovish, and USD/CAD slides. 1.0360 is challenged. Despite concerns about the strength of CAD, the general outlook is ok.
- Current Account showed improvement, posting a deficit of $14.1 billion. This beat the forecast of $15.3 billion. RMPI hit a ten-month low, dropping 2.2%. The estimate stood at -0.7%. IPPI followed suit with a -0.8% decline, disappointing the markets which had anticipated a 0.1% gain. Canada releases GDP on Friday. Expectations are low, with a forecast of a modest 0.1% rise. USD/CAD has edged higher, as the pair was trading at 1.0370.
- Roller coaster: A worried market mood pushed USD/CAD above 1.0380. But then, US GDP and jobless claims disappointed, and helped the loonie recover. Another disappointment from pending home sales already sent the pair tumbling down to 1.0320. 1.03 support is close.
- GDP boosts the C$: Canadian GDP for March rose by 0.2% and USD/CAD attacks support. Only 0.1% was expected. 1.03 is in danger.
- Towards the end of the week and the end of the month, the Canadian dollar retreated and USD/CAD closed at 1.0364. The USD is strong after the end of month fixing. Next week, employment figures will dominate. Stay tuned for a new USD/CAD forecast on Sunday.
USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: 
- Corporate Profits: Tuesday, 12:30. Corporate Profits are released on a quarterly basis, amplifying the effect of each release. The indicator fell to 1.4% in Q4 of 2012, and the markets will be hoping for a stronger gain for the Q1 reading.
- Overnight Rate: Wednesday, 14:00. The BOC will issue a Rate Statement, announcing its new benchmark interest rate. The rate has been pegged at 1.00% since 2010, and no change is expected.
- Current Account: Thursday, 12:30. This data is identical to the monthly Trade Balance, except it is issued every quarter. Current Account continues to post deficits, and the indicator has missed the estimate for the past three quarters. The markets will be hoping for some improvement in the Q1 release.
- RMPI: Thursday, 12:30. This indicator measures the change in the price of raw materials purchased by manufacturers. In April, the index dropped 1.7%, well off the estimate of a 0.5% gain. Will the index rebound back into positive territory in the upcoming reading?
- GDP: Friday, 12:30. Last but certainly not least, GDP is one of the most important indicators, and often has an immediate effect on the movement of USD/CAD. The reading for Q4 of 2012 showed a gain of 0.3%, edging past the estimate of 0.2%. A strong GDP release could help prop up the Canadian dollar, which has lost a fair bit of ground to the US dollar.
* All times are GMT
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
Dollar/CAD started the week at 1.0283 and quickly touched a low of 1.0277. The US dollar then flexed some muscle as the pair reached close to the 1.04 line, touching a high of 1.0393. The pair closed the week at 1.0311 as 1.0285 (discussed last week) remains intact as a support level.
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
1.0758 is a strong resistance line, which has held firm since April 2010. 1.0652 has been providing resistance since early September 2010. This marked a peak as USD/CAD went on a steep slide, falling as low as the 95 line.
1.0523 was a peak back in November 2011 and is minor resistance. 1.0446 was the peak that the pair recorded in June 2012 and is a key line on the upside. The pair barreled across 1.0340 during the week, but then retracted below this important resistance line. It could see futher activity early in the week if the US dollar continues to show strength.
USD/CAD continues to receive support at 1.0285. Next, 1.0180 provided support for the pair during March, and is back in this role after this week’s strong gains by the US dollar. 1.0125 gave its support to the pair during April 2013 and remains important. 1.01 was a trough back in July, and switched to resistance afterwards. The line proved its strength several times in 2013.
1.0050 provided support for the pair in May 2013 and in other occasions beforehand. It remains a barrier before parity. The very round number of USD/CAD parity is a clear line of course, and the battle was very clear to see at the beginning of August 2012 and also in 2013. It is a clear separator.
0.9950 provided some support for the pair during November and worked as resistance earlier. The final support line for now is 0.9880, which showed that it is a clear separator in October 2012, and continues to provide strong support.
I remain neutral on USD/CAD
The US dollar has shown recently shown broad strength against the major currencies, including the loonie. Canada’s weak inflation numbers underscore trouble in the Canadian economy, and further weak numbers will weigh on the Canadian currency. At the same time, the US economy is showing some improvement, and this is positive for Canada, whose economy is heavily dependent on the US. Also the price of oil supports the loonie.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
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