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The Canadian dollar  was    almost unchanged this week against its US counterpart. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.0423. This week’s key events include Building Permits, Ivey PMI and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Both the US and Canada had mixed results this week. Canadian inflation numbers continue to be weak, but GDP managed to beat the estimate. US housing and employment numbers struggled, but manufacturing data ended the week on a strong note.

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USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:   USD CAD Outlook Nov 4-8

  1. BOC Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri Speaks: Monday, 18:10. Schembri will address the CD Howe Policy Conference in Toronto. Analysts will be looking for clues as to the what monetary moves the BOC could make in the near future.
  2. Building Permits: Monday, 13:30. This is the first key event of the week. The indicator tends to show sharp fluctuations,  making accurate estimates difficult. In Sepetember, the indicator dropped 21.2%, crushing the estimate of -2.4%. The markets are expecting a sharp turnaround this time around, with an estimate of a 7.8% gain.
  3. Ivey PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. The index’s past two releases have been slightly over the 50-point level, but both have fallen short of their estimates. The markets are expecting a stronger reading for October, with an estimate of 54.7 points. Will the PMI meet or beat the prediction?
  4. Housing Starts: Friday, 13:15. Housing Starts jumped to 194 thousand last month, easily beating the estimate of 175 thousand. The markets are expecting more of the same in October, with a forecast of 192 thousand.
  5. Employment Change: Friday, 13:30. This is the most important employment event and it can have a major impact on the movement of USD/CAD. In September, the indicator posted a respectable gain or 11.9 thousand, but this fell well short of the estimate of 15.3 thousand. The estimate remains at 1.53 thousand for the October reading. Unemployment Rate dropped to 6.9% in September, its lowest level in almost five years. The estimate for   October stands at an even 7.0%.

* All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.0443 and reached close to the 1.05 level, touching a high of 1.0497. The support level of 1.0523 (discussed last week) remained intact. The pair then changed directions, dropping to a low of 1.0412 and closing the week at 1.0423.

Live chart of USD/CAD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDCAD” interval=”60″/]


Technical lines, from top to bottom:

We  begin with resistance at 1.0945, which is protecting the key 1.10 level. This line has not been tested since September 2009.

Next is resistance at 1.0853. This line has held firm since May 2010.

1.0723 was a cap in mid-2010, before the US dollar tumbled and dropped all the way into 0.93 territory.

1.0660 is an important resistance line, which was last tested in September 2010.

1.0523 was a peak back in November 2011. This line saw some action in early September and has weakened recently. It remained in place as the pair pushed upwards early in the week.

1.0446, a key resistance line, was breached  early in  the  week and  ended the week as a weak line. It could see further activity early in  the week.

1.0340 has had a busy October, and has reverted back to a support role. 1.0250 is next. This line has held firm since mid-September.

1.0180 provided support for the pair during March, and saw a lot of activity in the first half of June. It remains a strong support line.

The round number of 1.01 was a trough back in July 2012 and switched to resistance afterwards. The line proved its strength several times in 2013, most recently in mid-May.

1.0050 provided support for the pair in May 2013 and on other occasions beforehand. It remains a barrier before parity. The very round number of parity is a clear line and has not been tested since mid-February.

0.9910 was last tested in January, which marked the start of a strong US dollar rally which saw USD/CAD climb to the mid-1.03 range.

The final support line for now is the round number of 0.9800. This line has held firm since October 2012.

I am  neutral on USD/CAD

USD/CAD showed little change last week, but the pair did  rise close to the 1.05 line before retracting.  There are  several key Canadian releases this week, and solid readings  would likely give a boost to the loonie, which has struggled recently. Otherwise, we  could see USD/CAD head above the 1.05 line.

Further reading: