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The US dollar pushed higher during the week, but surrendered much of those gains on Friday , as USD/CAD  was up slightly.  The  pair closed at 1.0347.  This week’s highlights are Manufacturing Sales and Core CPI.  Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

The Canadian dollar was on the ropes for most of the week, but took advantage of weak US consumer confidence on Friday. Canadian employment Change fell short of the estimate, but the unemployment rate looked good, dropping below the 7% mark for the first time since December 2008.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDCADUpdate”/]

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:   USD CAD Outlook Oct. 14-18th

  1. Manufacturing Sales: Wednesday, 12:30. This key event provides is a good gauge of the health of the Canadian manufacturing sector. After a slight decline in  July the indicator bounced back with a strong gain of 1.7% in August. This easily surpassed the estimate of 0.6%. However, the markets are bracing for a weak release for September, with an estimate of only 0.3%. Will the indicator again surprise the markets with a strong reading?
  2. Foreign Securities Purchases: Thursday, 12:30. This indicator is directly released to currency demand, foreigners need to purchase Canadian dollars to buy Canadian securities. After a dreadful July, the markets bounced back in August,  as $6.09 billion worth  of securities were  sold. This crushed the estimate of $-2.23 billion. The markets are expecting another strong month, with the  September estimate standing at $7.21 billion.
  3. Core CPI: Friday, 12:30. Core CPI is considered the most important inflation indicator, as it excludes volatile items which are included in CPI. The index continues to post weak numbers, with a slight gain of 0.2% in August. The markets are expecting an identical gain for September.
  4. CPI: Friday, 12:30. CPI continues to point to weak consumer inflation and the previous reading came in at a flat 0.0%. The markets are not expecting much change for September, with an estimate of 0.1%.

* All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.0299 and touched a low of 1.0296. The pair then climbed to a  high of 1.0420 before retracting. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.0347, as support at 1.0340 (discussed last week) remained intact.

Live chart of USD/CAD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDCAD” interval=”60″/]


Technical lines, from top to bottom:

We  begin with resistance at 1.0853. This line  has held firm since May 2010.

1.0723 was a cap in mid-2010, before the US dollar tumbled and  dropped all the way into 0.93 territory.

1.0660  is an important resistance line, which was last tested  in  September 2010.

1.0523 was a peak back in November 2011.  This line  saw some action in early September and  is  currently providing strong resistance.

1.0446 continues to provide resistance. It held firm as USD/CAD broke above the 1.04 line before retracting late in the week.

1.0340 has reverted to a support line. This line is weak and could see action early in the week if the Canadian dollar continues to post gains.

1.0250 is next. This line started the week as a weak line, but has gained some breathing room as the pair has moved higher.

1.0180 provided support for the pair during March, and saw a lot of activity in the first half of June. It remains a strong resistance line.

The round number of 1.01 was a trough back in July 2012 and switched to resistance afterwards. The line proved its strength several times in 2013, most recently in mid-May.

1.0050 provided support for the pair in May 2013 and on other occasions beforehand. It remains a barrier before parity. The very round number of parity is a clear line and has  not  been tested  since mid-February.

0.9910 was last tested in January, which marked the start of a strong US dollar rally which saw USD/CAD climb to the mid-1.03 range.

The final support line for now is the round number of 0.9800. This line has held firm since October 2012.

I  am  bearish  on USD/CAD

USD/CAD was under pressure most of the week, and this is likely to continue this week. The debt ceiling will be hit on Oct. 17, and the markets will be jittery while negotiations continue in Congress. This instability is not good for the loonie, as nervous investors will likely opt for the safety of the US dollar.

Further reading: