USD/CAD: Trading the Canadian Jobs Aug 2014


Canadian Employment Change is an important leading indicator which can have a significant impact on the movement of USD/CAD. A reading which is higher than forecast is bullish for the Canadian dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for USD/CAD.

Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. The release of the employment change indicator simultaneously with the unemployment rate is highly anticipated and is often a market-mover.

Employment Change has shown strong fluctuations, making accurate forecasts a tricky task. In June, the indicator posted a sharp decline, coming in at -9.4 thousand. This took the markets by surprise, as the estimate stood at +20.7 thousand. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the upcoming release, with an estimate standing of +25.4 thousand. Will the indicator follow through with a strong gain?

Sentiment and Levels

The US dollar has enjoyed broad gains against its major rivals, buoyed by strong PMI and consumer confidence indicators. The Canadian economy has not been able to keep pace with its southern neighbor, and the sagging Canadian dollar finds itself heading towards the key 1.10 level. Canadian numbers will have to look sharp this week or the loonie is likely to lose more ground to its US counterpart. So, the overall sentiment is bullish on USD/CAD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.1124, 1.10, 1.0945, 1.0815, 1.0737 and 1.0684.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 22.0K to 29.0K: In this scenario, USD/CAD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
  2. Above expectations: 29.1K to 34.0K: A reading above expectations would be indicative of growth in the Canadian economy and could push the pair below one support level.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 34.0K: A sharp rise in employment numbers could propel the pair downwards, and a second support level could be broken.
  4. Below expectations: 17.0K to 21.9K: A lower than expected reading could push USD/CAD upwards, with one resistance level at risk.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 17.0K: A poor reading could hurt confidence in the loonie and the pair could break above a second resistance level.

For more on USD/CAD, see the Canadian dollar forecast.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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