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The    Swiss Trade Balance, released monthly,  measures the difference in value between exports and imports.   A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Swiss franc.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/CHF.  

Published on Tuesday at  7:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

The Trade Balance indicator  is important to traders, since a stronger trade balance means  that foreigners are  buying more Swiss goods, and they require more Swiss francs in order to make these purchases.  

January’s trade balance was disappointing, as the reading of 2.07B was far below the market prediction of 2.85B. The  forecast for the February reading calls for a further drop, to 1.95B. Will the indicator rebound and beat the  the market forecast this month?  

Sentiments and levels

USD/CHF continues to trade in range,  making some slight pushes in both directions.  Uncertainty continues to be the name of the game as far as the financial  crisis in the eurozone,  as it  is clear that  Europe’s troubles are far from over, despite the Greek bailout. Thus, the overall sentiment  is neutral  on USD/CHF towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 0.9306, 0.9250, 0.9204, 0.9120, 0.9085, 0.90, and 0.8950.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations:  1.70B to 2.20B: In such a scenario, the USD/CHF is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations:  2.21B to 2.46B: An unexpected higher reading can send USD/CHF   below one  support line.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 2.46B: The chances of such a scenario are low. Such an outcome would push down  the pair,  and a second  support level  might be broken as a result.
  4. Below expectations:  144B to 169B:  A  poor reading  could cause the USD/CHF to rise and break one resistance line.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 144B: In this scenario, the USD/CHF  could break  two  or  more  resistance levels.

For more about the USD/CHF, see the USD to CHF forecast.

Expert score

5

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