The yen showed some strength last week, as USD/JPY dropped about 200 points. The pair closed the week slightly above the 96 line. This week’s major release is Preliminary GDP. Here’s an outlook for the Japanese events and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
Japanese releases were not particularly impressive but the US dollar was broadly weaker on the absence of some QE taper news out of the US.[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDJPYUpdate”/]
- Preliminary GDP: Sunday, 23:50. Japanese GDP is released on a quarterly basis. Preliminary GDP precedes Final GDP and is considered the more important of these two. After two straight declines, Preliminary GDP in Q1 posted a strong gain of 0.7%, beating the estimate of 0.7%. The estimate for Q2 stands at 0.9%.
- Revised Industrial Production: Monday, 4:30. This indicator has been steadily moving higher, climbing to 1.9% in July. However, the markets are bracing for a sharp spiral, with an estimate of a 3.1% decline. Will the indicator surprise the markets with another strong release?
- Preliminary Machine Tool Orders: Monday, 6:00. Preliminary Machine Tool Orders is an important manufacturing release. The indicator continues to post sharp declines, and the July reading came in at -12.4%. Another decline is expected in the August release.
- Core Machinery Orders: Monday, 23:50. This indicator has shown strong fluctuations, making accurate forecasts a tricky task. In July, the indicator posted an excellent gain of 10.5%, crushing the estimate of 1.9%. The markets are expecting a steep decline in the August release, with an estimate of -7.1%.
- BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Monday, 23:50. This release is a detailed record of the BOJ’s most recent policy meeting and is carefully reviewed by analysts. A report which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the yen.
- Jackson Hole Symposium: Thursday-Saturday. The Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming is an important economic conference attended by central bankers, finance ministers, financial market participants and academics from around the world. With speculation that the Fed could taper QE as early as September, the conference could be prove to be a market-mover and will be carefully monitored by analysts.
*All times are GMT.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
- Technical lines from top to bottom
We start with resistance at 102.50. This was a key resistance line in late May but has been quiet since that time.
101.44 was the post-crisis high seen in April 2009, and has not been tested since mid-July. 100.85 was busy in July as the dollar pushed above the 100 level.
The significant 100 level saw a lot of activity in July. It has strengthened as a resistance line as the pair trades at lower levels.
98.90 held firm as the pair moved higher early in the week. 97.80 was quite busy in June and in late July.
96.71 has reverted to a resistance role. This is not a strong line and could see further action early in the week.
USD/JPY is receiving support at the round number of 95, which was last tested in mid-June.
93.79 marked the low point of a rally by the dollar which started in mid-June and saw the pair climb to the mid-101 range in July.
92.86 saw action in early March and again in early April. The latter date marked the low point of a yen rally which saw USD/JPY climb very close to the 100 level.
The final support line for now is 90.90. This line has remained intact since late January.
I am bullish on USD/JPY
The yen looked good last week, managing to post strong gains against the US dollar despite lukewarm Japanese releases. However, market sentiment is strong with regard to the US economy, and strong numbers out of the US could revive talk of QE tapering, which is a dollar-positive event.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.