USD/JPY: Trading The ISM Manufacturing PMI Apr 2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is based on a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. Respondents are surveyed for their view of the economy and business conditions in the US. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/JPY.

Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

Analysts are always interested in the views of purchase managers about the economy, as they are considered to be attuned to the latest economic and financial developments, and their expectations could be an indication of future economic trends. Thus, PMI releases  are considered market-movers  and an unexpected release could affect the movement of USD/JPY.

Manufacturing PMI is enjoying an upward trend in 2014. The March reading improved to 53.7 points, although this did fall short of the estimate of 54.2 points. The upward movement is expected to continue in the April release, with the estimate standing at 54.3 points.

Sentiments and levels

The BOJ may be forced to take action following the  not-totally-convincing inflation numbers for April. The Japanese economy could lose some strength after the sharp sales tax hike earlier in April, and this could hurt the yen. More importantly, critical US employment data is on its way and another QE taper is likely, so there’s a good chance the dollar will break out of range and move higher.  So, the overall sentiment is bullish  on USD/JPY towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 104.10, 103.77, 102.74, 102, 101.20 and 100.75.

5 Scenarios

1. Within expectations: 51.0 to 57.0: In such a case, USD/JPY is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
2. Above expectations: 57.1 to 60.0: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair well above one resistance line.
3. Well above expectations: Above 60.0: A sharp expansion in the manufacturing sector could push USD/JPY upwards, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
4. Below expectations: 48.0 to 50.9: A weak reading could push USD/JPY downwards and break below one level of support.
5. Well below expectations: Below 46.0: A sharp contraction would indicate deeper weakness in the manufacturing sector. This would likely push the pair downwards, possibly breaking a second support level.

For more about the yen, see the USD/JPY forecast.

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