USD/JPY: Trading the Philly Fed Index September 2012


The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is an important leading indicator, and is based on a survey of manufacturers in the Philadelphia area. It examines manufacturers’ opinions of business activity, and helps provides a snapshot of the health of the manufacturing sector. A reading which exceeds the forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/JPY.

Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index measures regional manufacturing growth. The manufacturing sector is a vital component of the economy and the index provides a useful reading for determining whether the economy is in a growth or contraction phase.

The manufacturing sector continues to be a sore spot in the US economy, as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index has rolled out four straight negative readings. The estimate for the September reading calls for a slight improvement, with a forecast of -4.1 points. Will the index beat the prediction and move closer to the zero level?

Sentiments and levels

QE3 eventually hit the yen, because of the details. USD/JPY is influenced by US indicators and by US yields. So if US yields aren’t falling, it becomes attractive to invest in the US. The surprise QE announcement by BOE will also bolster the dollar against the yen. In addition, there is a strong possibility of intervention by the BOJ to push up the pair from these low levels.  So, the overall sentiment is bullish on USD/JPY towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 79.70, 79.05, 78.80, 78, 77.50 and 77.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: -7.0 to -1.0: In such a case, the yen is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: -0.9 to 2.0: An unexpected higher reading can send USD/JPY above one resistance level.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 2.0: The chances of such a scenario are very low. The pair could break two or more resistance lines on such an outcome.
  4. Below expectations: -10.0 to -7.1: A reading in negative territory could push USD/JPY downwards, and one support level could be broken as a result.
  5. Well below expectations: Below -10.0: A very weak reading would signal worsening conditions in the manufacturing sector. In this scenario, the pair could break two or more support levels.

For more on the yen, see the USD/JPY forecast.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.