Wall Street’s rally pausing for a breath and DJIA bears eye 76.4% Fibo at 25651

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 103.81 points, or 0.4%, to 25,850.63.
  • S&P 500 SPX lost 9.82 points, or 0.4%, to 2,774.88.
  • Nasdaq Composite Index snapped an eight-day winning streak and shed 29.36 points, or 0.4%, to 7,459.71. 

U.S. stocks were lower on Thursday, despite further evidence that the US and China are making progress in finding a solution to their trade dispute. There were headlines from Reuters citing sources that reported on officials of the Chinese had been putting together the specific details of a possible trade deal – Agreements in principle are being drawn up in six key areas: forced technology transfers and cyber theft, intellectual-property rights, services, currency, agriculture and nontariff barriers to trade. However, the trade headlines are having less of an impact and, instead, investors are focussing back on the US economy and the Fed. The disappointments in today’s US data encouraged investors to take some of the cream of the top of the recovery rally following a less dovish set of FOMC minutes markets had been hoping for. 

US data disappoints, underpinning the Fed on hold for longer sentiment

  • US durable-goods orders rising 1.2% in December, below the 1.4% expected
  • The Philly Fed manufacturing index fell to a seasonally adjusted reading of -4.1 from 17 in January.
  • New claims for jobless benefits dropped to a seasonally-adjusted 216,000 during the week ending Feb 16th missing expectations. 
  • The Conference Board’s leading-economic-indicators index declined 0.1% in January to 111.3, following no change in December.
  • Existing home sales fell 1.2% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.94 million homes – (the third straight month of declines).

DJIA levels

The technical indicators in the DJIA are still positive on a weekly time frame, although are now mixed nearer term with a drop in daily RSI. A pullback will likely test the commitments of the bulls at the 76.4% Fibo at 25651 which could spark a flurry of profit-taking flurry back to the 50% mean reversion of the rally from the latest swing low to 25631. An additional bid and extension in the rally would likely look to 26277 as the 2nd Dec swing highs.


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