“With the Fed funds target range set to end 2018 at 2.25-2.50% the Fed’s monetary policy stance is no longer be described as “accommodative”, but it remains some way off from being restrictive. As such we expect interest rate rises to continue in 2019,” note ING analysts.
Key quotes
“The US economy will face increasing headwinds as the lagged effects of higher interest rates and a stronger dollar act as a brake on activity. The support from the fiscal stimulus will also gradually fade with the mid-term election results limiting the chances of further tax cuts or spending increases. Then there is the weaker global growth outlook, with Europe and Asia seeing clear signs of slowdown while intensifying trade protectionism could exacerbate the softening trend. Recent equity market weakness underlines these concerns for 2019 growth.”
“However, there will be some positives. Wage growth has broken above 3%YoY and we think there is more upside ahead given the tightness of the labour market.”
“On balance we think growth will slow in 2019, but inflation will likely persist above target for much of the year ahead. Consequently, we favour three 25bp Federal Reserve rate rises in 2019 versus four in 2018.”
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